Pay attention to currency movements

The dollar wil continue to rise

The dollar in the short term is likely to remain strong against other currencies.

In recent months,the dollar generally strong rise: Dow Jones -FXCM dollar index rose for 6 months, or more than 7%; ICE dollar index after 6 months of narrow range consolidation, last month also upward breakthrough, the monthly increase of 3.59%. At the same time, other currencies appear differentiation.

The dollar rose on the one hand because of its own, on the other hand, because the other currency defect. In the future, the difference between the dollar and other currencies is likely to continue, the dollar will continue to be strong, other currencies against the dollar is likely to continue to show the differentiation trend.

So far, the Fed still buy the $85 billion of assets in the implementation of each month the easing measures. This time there was no time and size constraints, the Fed said, the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% and inflation rate rose to 2.5%, will continue to implement this extremely accommodative measures.

polices to promote housing, employment market recovery. The latest data show, the United States of America economic recovery shows signs of acceleration. The strong data is potentially enhance the market that the Federal Reserve could end early asset purchase expectations. The United States 10 - year bond yields have topped 2%, close to its highest level in a year. But the rise in yields is likely to continue to strengthen the dollar attractive to investors.

Not the United States currency no advantages

  The dollar has the upper hand, not the United States currency in the short term it is difficult to find the opportunity. The Japanese economy continues to fall into recession in the fourth quarter of last year, the newly elected Andouble government has nominated for radical liberal Kuroda Higashihiko as the new governor. The market of expectations, after Kuroda came to power, the central bank's monetary easing is expected to increase, then the yen will usher in a new round of devaluation.

Facing the same pressure and the Bank of England to expand the loose. Britain faces the third time in 4 years the risk of a recession. The market show that the Bank of England, enlarging loose is just a matter of time.

The euro, February manufacturing and services PMI continued to atrophy, although have stopped getting worse, but still did not show any improvement.

Commodity currencies, as the dollar go strong lead to the same overall compression. But the United States and China's economic growth prospects are improving, and reduce the downward pressure on commodity exporters facing the Australian economy, reduce the RBA may also cut interest rates further, AUD, NZD as traditional high-yielding currencies in drop support. Is expected some time in the future, these two factors will continue to fight each other, leading to price in the range of shocks.

                                                        Excerpted by Yuan Junlan