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In late February analysis and prospect of the glycol market: rising outside keeping stable inside, and we can expect the afternoon market

2012.03.28   15:26

In late February,the domestic glycol market appears the adjustment trend,the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream enterprises is well enough,part of the transaction prices emerge the rising trend of small amplitude.Part of the Eastern China’s sellers define the ideal shipment price at 8250-8300 yuan/ton,the actual transaction price is in 8200 yuan/tons.The domestic ethylene glycol’s quoted price in the contract is about 9000 yuan/ton in February,some cash and carry,ship delivery price is about 8200-8250yuan/ton.

Because of the ethylene glycol upstream aspect is affected in the international market by demand picking up,cracking manufacturers continue to alleviate burdens and some cracking units’ operation influenced by  the winter climate,the European ethylene supply changed to critical.At present,European first contract price of the ethylene glycol in February have been identified in 1065 euro/ton ($1401/ton ),increases 41euro/ton compared to the January,which is considered from the increasing European production cost and decreasing trend of the Asia market, part of the sellers set the target price at1085-1100euro/ton. Minority suppliers feel a little disappointed for the this up-regulation,it fails to produce large profits for the ethylene glycol manufacturers,but greatly benefit the downstream PET manufacturers,they could sell the PET according to this up-regulation.The Asian market contract has been introduced,the Global Ethylene Glycol Limited Company’s contract price in March is identified as 1220dollars/ton (CFR Asia) which lower than February for 20dollars/ton.The United States market contract also appears the rising trend,the American industrial ethylene glycol contract price of February goes up1 cents/lb.

The spot market in bulk cargo aspect.It is reported that the level of turnover is in the fair published price range,but only two transactions are confirmed,traders sold 1000 tons of goods to a consumer with 872 euro/ton (CFR Antwerp,after-tax),the goods will arrive in this week.Also exsits some vendors sold the products with 860 Euros/ton (FOB Antwerp),which is equivalent to at least 865 euro/ton (CIF northwest Europe) level.

In downstream aspect. Asian textile and European bottle peak season has not fully appeared,part of the PET customers attempt to purchase before the busy season in advance.Import goods’ prices do not have the competitive power,in the 1580-1630 dollars/ ton (FOB Asia),European buyers still intend to rely on the domestic supply,domestic price is at 1400 euro/ton (FD Europe around).

Afternoon-market forecast.During the latter part of February, due to tight supply of the upstream ethylene market,the prices of such kind of products relatively upward steadily,American area’s ethylene glycol contract prices appeared the rising trend,Asian region’s glycol prices did not appear the rising adjustment trend. Domestic glycol market appeared adjustment trendency,profit-taking set behavior occurred during the actually transaction, especially as the rish storing capacity,the ethylene glycol market adjustment trend is dominant.Suppose if the downstream buyers’ purchasing enthusiasm ascend,ethylene glycol’s price will increase slightly after the adjustment,but the opportunities and risk coexist!

By Hunk

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